26th Jan 2022 • Written by Alex Jones

Eddie Nketiah - Potentially Palace

By now, most fans are familiar with the Nketiah saga. We were heavily interested in bringing either him or Edouard to the club, but we were put off by Arsenal’s fee and particularly the Lewisham-born youngster’s wage demands.

The young striker is out of contract in six months time and seems to prefer a Bundesliga move, but there are still reports that Palace are fighting hard to lure him to SE25. Of course, a free transfer abroad gives his agent a stronger hand at the negotiating table, and so squeezing a more lucrative wage packet out of an offshore suitor may have a particular appeal in Nketiah’s camp.

Separately, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has gone on the record that Nketiah will play no part in any Palace striker roundabout, just as Vieira confirmed Benteke is here to stay amid interest from Burnley.

Context aside though, would Nketiah actually be any good as a Palace player though?

Nketiah has struggled to make an impact in the Premier League and has only played a bit-part role for the Gunners this season, despite Aubameyang going AWOL and finding himself outside Arsenal’s plans.

Nketiah celebrating his hat-trick against Sunderland in the Carabao Cup

An archetypal poacher, Nketiah boasts an instinct for quick reactions and runs to outwit his markers as he slaloms between lines to add goals to his game. Although against League One opposition, his hat-trick against Sunderland in the Carabao Cup exemplified this; each goal relied upon superb positional awareness.

In that sense, he’s far more easily-likened to Odsonne Edouard as a competitive option, and marks a radical departure from target men in Benteke and Mateta; the links to the striker, if nothing else, are symptomatic of a new striking direction that Vieira seeks to take.

Nketiah can be easily-likened to Odsonne Edouard as a competitive option.

Moving onto his record as a striker, he holds the goalscoring record for England’s U21s (16 goals in 17 games; 13 in qualifiers, 3 in friendlies), but here are the teams he’s scored against:

In terms of goal returns, it’s worth noting that 5 goals in over 40 appearances is a paltry return for a striker so assuredly demanding game time and elite-level wages. Of course, more of his appearances than not have come from the bench, but question marks remain over his efficacy in front of goal.

Indeed, across his entire Arsenal career (from 17-22 years old, including Leeds stint) he has played 53 games with 13 starts - amounting to only 1693 minutes played. That’s less than Tyrick Mitchell has played this season!

Tyrick Mitchell has more minutes played this season than Nketiah’s entire Arsenal career.

In that view, he is something of a raw talent that juxtaposes strong poaching attributes with poor returns on the scoresheet - and is a risk as a result. He has created 6.2 xG in the 53 games, scoring 8 times. He comes out with 0.47 xG per 90 (half a goal) and is exceeding his xG, suggesting a slight overperformance in relation to his actual threat.

At this stage of his career, it’s unsurprising that Nketiah is raring to hold down the limelight at a top-level club. Palace already boast a wealth of striking options, and it’s hard to see Nketiah breaking in as the main man to lead the line.

❤️💙

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