27th May 2024 • Written by Pat Rosanio

Oliver Glasner's red and blue revolution has arrived

It doesn’t require thousands of words on a page to show you that Crystal Palace have improved under Oliver Glasner. The results have spoken for themselves, as 24 points from Glasner’s 13 matches were fifth most in the Premier League during that timeframe.

Indeed, the final third of the 2023/24 season was not an audition, but rather a proof of concept for the Austrian’s managerial methods. With that being said, let’s look at why Glasner’s Eagles are flying high. We’ll look at one specific element across two angles: one through data and one through tactics.

Field Tilt: Location Matters!

There are a lot of metrics that depict improvement since Glasner’s arrival, but the one that stands out most is Field Tilt. Field Tilt is a simple metric which looks at the ratio of a club’s final third touches to the total final third touches in a match.

As an example, if Club A has 300 touches in the final third while their opponent has 100, Club A would have a Field Tilt of 75%.

Why is this such a valuable metric?

Due to it showing average location of the ball on the pitch - regardless of possession - it helps to paint a picture of how threatening that possession is. It is common knowledge that keeping the ball closer to the opponent's goal increases the likelihood of scoring, so having both Field Tilt and Possession percentages can help to assign value to a club’s time on the ball.

Generally speaking, a side with higher Field Tilt than Possession shows that they’re more progressive and have more attacking intent, while the inverse shows a side who is more passive and content to pass the ball around the back – far away from the opponent’s goal.

Image via The Athletic - referring to Manchester United's 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace in 2021

Since Oliver Glasner’s appointment, Crystal Palace have averaged 48% in Field Tilt and 43% in Possession. Under Roy Hodgson, Palace averaged 36% Field Tilt and 40% Possession in the reverse fixtures against common opponents.

While Average Possession only increased 9% under Glasner, Field Tilt increased an astonishing 33%. This alone changes the manner of which matches are played. It shows that, under Glasner, the ball stays in much more advantageous areas of the pitch – which in turn leads to more goal-scoring opportunities.

How was Glasner able to turn the tide so quickly?

We can find our answer by investigating data that depicts aggression out of possession, as well as data that depicts progression with the ball. 

For the former, let’s look at Tackles in the Attacking Third & Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), which is defined as the average number of opponent passes allowed before any defensive move (i.e. tackles, fouls, interceptions, clearances, successful duels).

As you’d expect, these two metrics go hand-in-hand because more tackles in the attacking third would naturally increase PPDA. Against like-for-like opponents, Crystal Palace’s Attacking Third Tackles increased 32% under Glasner. Glasner’s tenure oversaw a 10% improvement in PPDA, from 14.3 in the 25 matches before Glasner to 12.9 in his 13 matches in charge.

Credit: Adrian Dennis/Getty Images

When analyzing in-possession data to determine why Field Tilt increased, progressive actions stick out. Progressive Actions – defined as combined Progressive Passes and Progressive Carries – increased by 23% against common opponents under Glasner. Looking even deeper into it, entries into the opponent’s penalty area – defined by combined passes and carries into the box – increased by 42%.

Carries into the opponent’s penalty area increased an incredible 86% - from 3.4 to 6.3 per match – against like-for-like opponent’s since Glasner’s takeover. Again, this is quite simple to understand. Having the ball closer to goal more often led to more chances and, once clinician improved, it led to more goals.

3-4-2-1: Freeing Playmakers from the Burden of Width

Perhaps you are someone who doesn’t enjoy statistical breakdowns and would rather use the “eye test” to analyze the tactical aspects of the game. If so, you’re in luck, as we will analyze how Oliver Glasner improved Crystal Palace’s attacking potential by a simple formation change. Glasner shifted Palace from a back 4 into his preferred 3421 set up, where the two players behind the striker act as tandem number 10’s.

In their strongest XI, the Eagles deploy Ebere Eze and Michael Olise in these roles. Due to the presence of wingbacks on the touchline, Eze and Olise can focus on roaming the half spaces to find threatening pockets on the pitch to receive and attack. As they no longer have to worry about holding width, the two playmakers can drift close to each other and have much more interplay than they could in previous formations. 

This was evident in Eze’s goal at Wolves. Naouirou Ahamada won a 50/50 ball and immediately played it forward to Olise, who was just meters away from Eze in the central area of the pitch. Olise turned and played a perfectly weighted through ball to Eze in the space vacated by Odsonne Edouard in front of goal. Eze finished the run with the type of composed finish that Palace supporters have come to know so well, and the match was killed off at 3 goals to 1.

Credit: Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images

This wouldn’t have been able to occur had Olise been playing as a right winger in a 4-3-3 or 4-3-2-1, as this drastic shift centrally would leave Crystal Palace exposed on the flank – inviting dangerous 2v1 situations for our right back. Only because of the shift to a 3421 can Olise have the freedom to drift alongside Eze and overwhelm opponents with interplay between them.

Whether you look at it via data, or via the eye-test (I’d strongly suggest you do both!), the evidence of Glasner’s revolution in SE25 is apparent. This isn’t a fluke, a purple patch, or anything of the sort. The majority of opponents down the stretch (Liverpool, West Ham, Newcastle, Manchester United) still had something to play for, fielded strong lineups against the Eagles, yet were made to look inferior against a side who have fully bought into their manager’s tactics.

Unfortunately, with a smaller club like Crystal Palace, it will always be an uphill battle to keep elite talent. However, if Oliver Glasner can hold on to these players, and also supplement them with appropriate depth, there is reason to be very optimistic for what next season holds!

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