18th May 2024 • Written by Riley Moquin

Palace eye potential top-half finish in season finale against Villa

Photo: Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images

Match Details: Premier League, 19/05/2024, 16:00 Kick Off, Selhurst Park

High-flying Eagles

Palace enter Championship Sunday having won five of their last six matches, an unbeaten stretch good for one of the best points totals in the Premier League over recent weeks. The run has notably been marked for solely consisting of opponents above Palace in the table, with the Eagles taking points in often incredible fashion, such as their 4-0 dismantling of Manchester United and 1-0 victory over Liverpool.

Last weekend Palace managed to orchestrate a 3-1 away at Wolves, with the squad’s star front three – Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, and Jean-Philippe Mateta – each finding the back of the net. While Olise and Eze have been tremendous all season when fit, Mateta’s surge to stardom has coincided with the hiring of manager Oliver Glasner and Palace’s recent upturn in form. Since Glasner’s managerial debut at Palace – late February’s 3-0 win over Burnley – Mateta has added ten goals to his tally. His 13 total goals on the season leads Palace’s goal scorers in the Premier League, followed by Olise (10) and Eze (9).

But there is so much more to Palace’s latest resurgence than their front three. January transfer Adam Wharton has been a revelation in midfield, raising calls for an inclusion in England’s impending Euros squad. Tyrick Mitchell has continued to look increasingly confident in his new wing-back role week by week, while other January acquisition Daniel Muñoz has excelled and adapted to the Premier League seamlessly as Palace’s other wing-back.

Photo: Andrew Kearns/CameraSport/Getty Images

Despite a still-lengthy injury list, Palace have put the pieces together for winning football. Since Glasner’s hiring, Palace have gone from five points shy of the relegation zone to a potential top-half season finish with a win and other results going their way. While that ending might be the optimistic outlook, Palace also look to tie their highest-ever Premier League points total with a win on the final day.

Stat of the Week

Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise have combined for 18 goal contributions in their last six starts together.

Early Team News

After an early injury in last weekend’s matchup against Wolves, Will Hughes will be sidelined against Aston Villa with Glasner describing his injury as putting him out of action “for several weeks”

In other news, reliable midfielder Jefferson Lerma will return to the matchday squad for Palace, while centre-back Marc Guehi will be involved after two substitute appearances returning from injury, though whether he starts is yet to be determined. Otherwise, midfielder Cheick Doucouré and goalkeeper Sam Johnstone remain out with long-term injuries, while the same goes for young midfielder and forward Matheus França as well.

Aston Villa will be without left-back Álex Moreno, who has been out of the rotation for the last month via injury. Also injured is Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara, who sustained a toe and knee injury respectively, earlier this year. Winger Emiliano Buendía and centre-back Tyrone Mings each continue rehabilitation for ligament tears, and will miss the season finale as a result.

Ending strong or Villa ‘on the beach’?

With Tottenham’s 2-0 loss to Manchester City on Tuesday, Aston Villa clinched 4th place in the Premier League and thus a historic Champions League qualification. With their season outcome already decided and going head-to-head against a red hot Crystal Palace, only time will tell whether Villa have the fortitude to see out a tough matchup.

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery’s formation varies based on opponent, but usually sits in something resembling a 4-2-3-1. Villa’s attack is led and starred by England international Ollie Watkins, whose remarkable ascent to being among the Premier League’s very best talents is marked this year by 19 goals and 13 assists across 36 matches played.

Photo: Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images

Other key players for the Villans include attacking midfielder Moussa Diaby – who has played in every game for the club – midfielder Youri Tielemans, and midfielder Douglas Luiz. Having lost just nine games all season, Villa play a balanced style of football that does not rely too heavily on the attack or defence individually.

On any given matchday Villa can go goal-for-goal with the very best the Premier League has to offer, such as on Monday’s 3-3 draw with Liverpool or last month’s signature 2-0 win over Arsenal that has been oft-cited as one of the deciding matches of this Premier League title race should Manchester City lift the trophy.

Riley’s Analysis

The keys to a Palace win on Sunday are the same as has been the case for the club’s recent surge up the table: aggressive counter-attacking, fluid wing-back play, and feeding Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze. This Palace team does not need to dominate possession in order to dominate a game, and in fact some of its most resounding wins have come having lost the possession battle by a significant margin, such as having just 30 percent possession against Liverpool, 38 percent against Wolves, and 42 percent against Manchester United.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa also understand the art of the counterpress, though can dominate possession often as well and should be expected to do so against Palace on Sunday regardless of the final scoreline. 

Despite the incredible season orchestrated at Villa, the club’s run-in to the end of the season has had its blemishes. A Europa Conference League semi-final elimination to Olympiacos by a 6-2 goal margin came after a 1-0 loss to a freefalling Brighton side, and the very next match saw three goals not be enough to defeat Liverpool. 

There is no doubt this Aston Villa side is dangerous and formidable, but a tumultuous final month and nothing left to compete for, the opportunity for Palace to grab one final win on 2023/24’s final day looms as a very real possibility.

Cal’s Analysis 

Unai Emery has been very flexible when setting up his team this campaign, often switching between a 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2. Injuries have played a large part in this versatility along with the type of opposition Villa face.

At this stage of the season nearly everyone knows about the high line Villa play. They rank first for catching opponents offside in the league (4.4 times per/90) and this impacts the amount they press opposition in the final third and the distance they cover per game. 

Many think that if you rank low in terms of running stats, players are not working hard enough. Well, Emery’s side are 20th in the league for distance covered per game, 20th for pressures, 19th for final third pressures and 19th for high turnovers. Yet they have qualified for the Champions League.

When they lose the ball, they will look to find their defensive shape which includes being compact and having a high line, which is aided by the high starting position of Emi Martinez. They will encourage teams to play the ball in behind their defence, this is when Villa's back four will step up and catch opponents offside. Unai Emery's men are arguably the most well coached team in the Premier League and this proves it.

In possession Villa look to play narrow, making the midfield congested while creating overloads in their favour. This helps them play quickly through the middle to supply Ollie Watkins who has contributed to 41% of Villa’s goals this season (19 goals 13 assists). 

Photo: Alex Pantling/Getty Images

I am sure Oliver Glasner is looking for a way to exploit that high line Villa play and continue Palace’s positive run. 

@calb20_10

Predicted Lineups

Crystal Palace: Henderson (GK); Munoz, Richards, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; Lerma, Wharton; Eze, Olise, Mateta.

Aston Villa: Martinez (GK); Konsa, Digne, Carlos, Torres; Tielemans, Luiz, Bailey, McGinn, Diaby; Watkins

Match Officials

Referee: Darren Bond

Assistants: James Mainwaring, Craig Taylor

Fourth Official: Dean Whitestone

VAR: Tony Harrington

Assistant VAR: Mat Wilkes

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